I think Canelo/GGG is a 50/50 fight. That being said I’m picking GGG to win.
I think in the early going their styles will off set each other. GGG will look to apply pressure behind his battering ram jab. He will be held in check by Canelo’s counter punches which will also be held in check by GGG’s battering ram jab. Judges when in doubt tend to favor the busier boxer. Which in the early-mid rounds will be Canelo. He’s also the “A” side which will also give him an advantage in close rounds. I’m expecting that there are going to be a lot of close rounds that are going to be debated after the fight. GGG’s best argument to win close rounds is to be the aggressor. Like being busier, it’s about creating an illusion of control. I think because of this Canelo is likely to be a head through 3/4 of the fight.
Looking at GGG/Brook, GGG/Jacobs, Canelo/Mayweather and Canelo/Khan. Both GGG and Canelo can be out boxed. While I think both have excellent boxing skills. I don’t think either is as good as the opponents who gave each issues. Don’t expect a 12 round shoutout.
I think Canelo will be the boxer and GGG the pressure fighter. If this fight was fought at light middleweight down. Canelo would box his way to a clear decision. However, starting at middleweight. Size and power starts to make up for skill. I think GGG’s battering ram jab is going to find its target as the rounds progress. Which will open up more shots. I can say with confidence that GGG has one shot stopping power at midddelweight. I can say Canelo is a very good boxer, and has aculmitive punching power at middleweight, but I can’t say based on one fight above light middleweight. (The Cotto fight was at 155 that’s a light middleweight fight).
I think Canelo will land enough punches to win rounds, but not enough to hold GGG off as the fight progresses. I think in the 10th, 11th, or 12th round(s) . GGG is going to drop Canelo. I think if the fight goes to the cards. I think Canelo will be slightly ahead. I would not be surprised by any close decision either way Even a split decision or draw. However I think GGG stops Canelo late in what will be an enjoyable boxing match.